The Bank of Canada is raising its target for the overnight rate to 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 3/4 per cent.
Recent economic data have been stronger than expected, supporting the Bank’s view that growth in Canada is becoming more broadly-based and self-sustaining. Consumer spending remains robust, underpinned by continued solid employment and income growth.  There has also been more widespread strength in business investment and in exports. Meanwhile, the housing sector appears to be cooling in some markets in response to recent changes in tax and housing finance policies. The Bank continues to expect a moderation in the pace of economic growth in the second half of 2017, for the reasons described in the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR), but the level of GDP is now higher than the Bank had expected.
The global economic expansion is becoming more synchronous, as anticipated in July, with stronger-than-expected indicators of growth, including higher industrial commodity prices. However, significant geopolitical risks and uncertainties around international trade and fiscal policies remain, leading to a weaker US dollar against many major currencies. In this context, the Canadian dollar has appreciated, also reflecting the relative strength of Canada’s economy.
While inflation remains below the 2 per cent target, it has evolved largely as expected in July. There has been a slight increase in both total CPI and the Bank’s core measures of inflation, consistent with the dissipating negative impact of temporary price shocks and the absorption of economic slack. Nonetheless, there remains some excess capacity in Canada’s labour market, and wage and price pressures are still more subdued than historical relationships would suggest, as observed in some other advanced economies.

Many of us were surprised today when Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz announced another increase in the Prime rate raising it to 3.20%. This means that your mortgage rate has likely risen by the same .25%.
The Variable rate mortgage has consistently been an excellent choice because of the savings we've generated compared to the 5 year fixed rate. Those savings have not dissappeared because of a slight increase over the past few months. The variable rate mortgage still has a spread of .40-1.20% compared to the prevailing 5 year fixed rate of 3.39% today. Meaning it is still not the right time to convert to a fixed term. That being said I would be happy to discuss your specific situation.
The recent increase in interest rates is a result of the stronger than expected performance in the Canadian economy. The year over year Canadian GDP (Gross Domestic Product) jumped 3.6% in the first quarter of 2017, to 4.5% in the second quarter. This growth rate exceeds the predictions of the Bank of Canada.
You wouldn't be wrong in assuming that the Bank of Canada is pumping the brakes on our economy. The growth was unexpected by almost all. Last month in August 2017 there was a slight dip in manufacturing numbers and unemployment continues to be low. Canada actually has the best performing economy in the entire G7, and that is factoring in the downward pressure on housing, and lower oil prices. Today's increase put prime back to where it was in January 2015 just before the crash in Oil prices.
So what will happen with housing? Well I believe that you will see a continue softening of values. The likely result of today's rate increase will likely cause housing market to decrease by another 5 to 10 percent. I estimate a more normal 3 - 7% annual increase in home values beginning next year. The days of 20% year over year price increases are done for now. And that is a good thing.
When you got your Variable Rate Mortgage we did a "stress test". Even a mortgage at Prime today is still about 35% lower than what we used to "Qualify" you for your mortgage. So please don't worry about affordability. You can expect an increase in the interest portion of your mortgage of approx 25 dollars per 100k per month. Its not money anyone wants to spend, but it is still a far better deal than a fixed rate.
I hope this information has been of value to you. Please feel free to reach out to me directly at [email protected] or by cell at 905 334 9111.

According to statistics released today by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national home sales declined further in July 2017. Highlights:

• National home sales fell 2.1% from June to July.
• Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity in July stood 11.9% below last July’s level.
• The number of newly listed homes edged back by 1.8% from June to July.
• The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) was up 12.9% year-over-year (y-o-y) in July 2017.
• The national average sale price edged down by 0.3% y-o-y in July.

“July’s interest rate hike may have motivated some homebuyers with pre-approved mortgages to make an offer,” said CREA President Andrew Peck. “Even so, sales activity continued to soften in the Greater Golden Horseshoe region. Meanwhile, sales and prices in Montreal continue to strengthen. All real estate is local, and REALTORS® remain your best source for information about sales and listings where you live or might like to.”
“July marked the smallest monthly decline in Greater Golden Horseshoe home sales since Ontario’s Fair Housing Plan was announced in April,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “This suggests sales may be starting to bottom out amid stabilizing housing market sentiment. Time will tell whether that’s indeed the case once the transitory boost by buyers with pre-approved mortgages fades.”
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Canadian municipalities issued $8.1 billion worth of building permits in June, up 2.5% from May and the second highest value on record. Higher construction intentions for multi-family dwellings and commercial buildings were mainly responsible for the national increase. All building components reported gains in June, except for single-family dwellings.
The value of residential building permits fell 0.9% in June to $5.0 billion, the fourth decrease in five months. The decline was mainly the result of lower construction intentions in four provinces, notably Ontario.
In June, the value of permits for single-family dwellings decreased 12.5% to $2.4 billion. Seven provinces registered declines, with Ontario being the main contributor to the decrease.
Conversely, construction intentions for multi-family dwellings rose 12.5% in June to $2.7 billion, marking a third consecutive monthly increase. Seven provinces registered gains, led by Ontario and British Columbia.
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The Bank of Canada is raising its target for the overnight rate to 3/4 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/2 per cent. Recent data have bolstered the Bank’s confidence in its outlook for above-potential growth and the absorption of excess capacity in the economy. The Bank acknowledges recent softness in inflation but judges this to be temporary. Recognizing the lag between monetary policy actions and future inflation, Governing Council considers it appropriate to raise its overnight rate target at this time.
The global economy continues to strengthen and growth is broadening across countries and regions. The US economy was tepid in the first quarter of 2017 but is now growing at a solid pace, underpinned by a robustlabour market and stronger investment. Above-potential growth is becoming more widespread in the euro area. However, elevated geopolitical uncertainty still clouds the global outlook, particularly for trade and investment. Meanwhile, world oil prices have softened as markets work toward a new supply/demand balance.
Canada’s economy has been robust, fuelled by household spending. As a result, a significant amount of economic slack has been absorbed. The very strong growth of the first quarter is expected to moderate over the balance of the year, but remain above potential. Growth is broadening across industries and regions and therefore becoming more sustainable. As the adjustment to lower oil prices is largely complete, both the goods and services sectors are expanding. Household spending will likely remain solid in the months ahead, supported by rising employment and wages, but its pace is expected to slow over the projection horizon.  At the same time, exports should make an increasing contribution to GDP growth. Business investment should also add to growth, a view supported by the most recent Business Outlook Survey.
The Bank estimates real GDP growth will moderate further over the projection horizon, from 2.8 per cent in 2017 to 2.0 per cent in 2018 and 1.6 per cent in 2019. The output gap is now projected to close around the end of 2017, earlier than the Bank anticipated in its April Monetary Policy Report (MPR).
CPI inflation has eased in recent months and the Bank’s three measures of core inflation all remain below 2 per cent. The factors behind soft inflation appear to be mostly temporary, including heightened food price competition, electricity rebates in Ontario, and changes in automobile pricing. As the effects of these relative price movements fade and excess capacity is absorbed, the Bank expects inflation to return to close to 2 per cent by the middle of 2018. The Bank will continue to analyze short-term inflation fluctuations to determine the extent to which it remains appropriate to look through them.
Governing Council judges that the current outlook warrants today’s withdrawal of some of the monetary policy stimulus in the economy. Future adjustments to the target for the overnight rate will be guided by incoming data as they inform the Bank’s inflation outlook, keeping in mind continued uncertainty and financial system vulnerabilities.
Information note
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is September 6, 2017. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on October 25, 2017.

This is an opportunity to gather in our communities, from coast to coast to coast, and to proudly celebrate all we have in common. It is an opportunity to celebrate our achievements, which were born in the audacious vision and shared values of our ancestors, and which are voiced in nearly all of the languages of the world through the contribution of New Canadians.
Canada Day is a time to celebrate the heritage passed down to us through the works of our authors, poets, artists and performers. It is a time to rejoice in the discoveries of our scientific researchers, in the success of our entrepreneurs, and to commemorate our history – a history in which each new chapter reveals itself to be more touching, more fascinating than the last.
In this momentous year marking the 150th anniversary of Confederation, our Canada Day celebrations will be bigger than ever! There will be major celebrations in 19 Canadian cities in addition to the many festivities set to take place in various communities from coast to coast. A full weekend of activities is also on the agenda in Canada’s Capital Region to celebrate Canada Day and our country’s anniversary in a spectacular way.
As we look ahead, we have every reason to show our pride in being Canadian and to face the future with confidence and enthusiasm.
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Activities across Canada
Find out what activities are going on in your region and across the country:
Interactive Google Map
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Because purchasing a home is probably the biggest investment you will ever make, you’ll definitely want a team of professionals working with you throughout the process.
The Real Estate Agent 
Helps you find the ideal home
Writes an Offer of Purchase
Negotiates on your behalf
Gives you important information about the community Can help you plan the home inspection
The Lawyer/Notary 
A lawyer (or a notary in Quebec) protects your legal rights. He or she will review all contracts before you sign them, especially the Offer (or Agreement) to Purchase. Remember that a lawyer/notary should:
Be a licensed, full-time lawyer/notary
Be local and understand real estate laws, regulations and restrictions Have realistic and acceptable fees
Be able to explain things in plain language
The Home Inspector 
Performs an inspection of the visible components of the home
Tells you the condition of the house; what is working properly; what needs to be changed; what is unsafe; and what repairs need to be made
Can tell you where there may have been problems in the past
Usually belongs to a provincial or industry association

Your credit score is a number that illustrates your financial health at a specific point in time. It also serves as an indicator of your financial past, and how consistently you pay off your bills and debts. This is one of the factors mortgage professionals consider in qualifying you for a mortgage.

How to Check Your Credit Score

To find out your credit score, contact Canada’s two credit-reporting agencies: Equifax Canada at www.equifax.ca and TransUnion Canada at www.transunion.ca. For a fee, these agencies will provide you with an online copy of your credit score as well as a credit report – a detailed summary of your credit history, employment history and personal financial information on file. You can also obtain a free copy of your credit report by mail. If you find any errors in your report, notify the credit-reporting agency and the organization responsible for the inaccuracy immediately.

If You Do Not Have a Credit Score
It’s important to begin building a credit history as early as possible. You can begin to build one by applying for – and responsibly using – a credit card. Your financial institution or mortgage professional can help.

How to Improve Your Credit Score
Demonstrating your ability to manage credit is key to maintaining a good credit score. There are a number of things you can do to improve your credit score. These include: Always pay your bills in full and on time. If you cannot pay the full amount, try to pay at least the required minimum shown on your monthly statement. Pay off your debts (such as loans, credit cards, lines of credit, etc.) as quickly as possible. Never go over the limit on your credit cards, and try to keep your balances well below the limits. Reduce the number of credit card or loan applications you make. Once your credit score has improved, work with your mortgage professional to obtain a mortgage that works for you.

Find Out More
To find out more about credit scores and reports, visit the Financial Consumer Agency of Canada website and download or request a free copy of their guide, Understanding Your Credit Report and Credit Score. This guide provides practical, straightforward information on how to obtain and understand your credit report and score, as well as how to build and maintain a good credit history.

In March 2017, CMHC completed an online survey of 3,002 recent mortgage consumers, all prime household decision-makers who had undertaken a mortgage transaction in the past 12 months. Sixty-five percent had undergone a mortgage renewal, 15% had refinanced their mortgage, and 20% had purchased a home with mortgage financing (11% First-Time Buyers and 9% Repeat Buyers). CMHC has conducted this survey since 1999. It is the largest and most comprehensive survey of its kind in Canada.
The Home Buying Process

• Sixty-four percent of First-Time Buyers indicated they were renting before purchasing, and 34% lived with family.
• Wanting to buy their first home (37%) and feeling financially ready (31%) were the most important reasons First-Time Buyers gave for purchasing a home in the past year. Low interest rates was the most important reason noted by Repeat Buyers at 33%.
• Fifty-three percent of buyers were aware of the latest mortgage qualification changes, and 19% noted that it impacted their purchase decision. For example, 11% of buyers said they increased their down payment, 6% purchased a smaller home, 5% purchased in a dfferent location, and 3% delayed their purchase.
• Buyers interact with a wide variety of people, and are most likely to consult a real estate agent (72%), or look to a family member or mortgage lender for advice (both at 57%). Forty-one percent reported interacting with a mortgage broker. Of all interactions, real estate agents were noted as most valuable.
• Seventy-one percent of First-Time Buyers accessed savings for their down payment, while 18% received a gift from a family member.

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The following is an excerpt from the VERICO Economic Report written by Michael Campbell
The key to understand is that there is a big difference between addressing the affordability problem through reducing demand versus increasing supply. So far politicians have focused on reducing demand by implementing the foreign buyers tax in Greater Vancouver and just recently in Toronto, (and proposed in Victoria), to the changes to mortgage eligibility rules that impact markets across the country.
Vancouver’s foreign buyers tax introduced last August, seems to have had a short term impact on sales of single detached homes given the dramatic reduction in activity but it hasn’t made single detached homes (or condos) more affordable for people looking to get in the market.
That’s because none of those actions get to the root of the problem, which is lack of supply in both Vancouver and Toronto.
Greater Vancouver is expected to add 1.2 million people in the next 23 years, which guarantees a massive housing shortfall. In Toronto, the discrepancy between population growth and new units coming on stream is even greater. This year it’s estimated that 80,000 more people will come into the Toronto area but only 1500 more units are scheduled to come on stream.
It is interesting that politicians don’t seem to understand that restricting demand is negative for the economy while trying to mitigate the affordability crisis by increasing supply encourages economic growth. Sadly, the vast majority of politicians have chosen to attack the demand side. That strategy won’t work and it will cost the economy.
 
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